QA 233 Case 4

QA 233 (Basic Business Statistics)

Case Assignments

Case 5

“Battleground” States

Edwina Schnorr is the Campaign Director for John L. Wush, the 2004 Republocratic candidate for President. Ms. Schnorr is attempting to assess the regions of the country where her candidate’s support is weakest so she can devote additional resources to activities (television and radio ads, visits by the candidate, press releases and newspaper articles, mailers and leaflets, and door-to-door stumping by volunteers) in those areas. She has contracted with the Trotter Organization, a nationwide political pollster, to collect a random sample of 500 people from each state and the District of Columbia . In addition to demographics and responses to questions about attitudes about various issues, the Trotter Organization also asks each respondent about the likelihood s/he will vote and about her/his voting intentions (i.e., for which candidate will the respondent vote?). A summary of the state-by-state responses to the voter intention question for the Trotter poll taken on October 21, 2004 are provided below:

State	Number of John L. Wush supporters
Alabama	270
Alaska	285
Arizona	245
Arkansas	240
California	205
Colorado	230
Connecticut	195
Delaware	205
DC	55
Florida	225
Georgia	265
Hawaii	205
Idaho	295
Illinois	215
Indiana	270
Iowa	240
Kansas	285
Kentucky	285
Louisiana	250
Maine	220
Maryland	215
Massachusetts	135
Michigan	200
Minnesota	225
Mississippi	255
Missouri	250
Montana	300
Nebraska	305
Nevada	235
New Hampshire	235
New Jersey	210
New Mexico	220
New York	200
North Carolina	245
North Dakota	310
Ohio	240
Oklahoma	275
Oregon	225
Pennsylvania	230
Rhode Island	150
South Carolina	260
South Dakota	290
Tennessee	250
Texas	290
Utah	320
Vermont	200
Virginia	245
Washington	220
West Virginia	230
Wisconsin	230
Wyoming	325

Ms. Schnorr has asked you, a budding statistical analyst, to use the Trotter Organization results to help her determine in which states the outcome is least certain. She has also asked you to use these data to predict whether Mr. Wush will defeat George W. Tarry, the Demopublican Presidential candidate.

Click here to download an Excel^® file containing the raw data used in this case.

Return to the QA 233 Virtual Classroom